| − | China's most significant inroads into the Pacific will face their biggest test when Solomon Islanders go to the ballot box.<br><br>Manasseh Sogavare, whose cosying up to China has characterised his fourth non-consecutive term as prime minister, faces the polls next week for the first time since severing diplomatic ties with Taiwan and signing a security pact with Beijing.<br><br>The growing relationship with the global power has brought many fruits to the island nation including a $A100 million national stadium complex and a $100m loan for a Huawei-led broadband rollout.<br><br>But, as well as being the impetus for two riots in recent years, the realignment has rung alarm bells in Canberra and [https://chungchinghecacloai.com/ nhanlambangcap] Washington over concerns for China's motives and the implications for defence routes and regional stability.<br><br>Sitting northeast of Australia, the nation of 720,000 has long been considered a strategic territory for larger powers, a point made clear by sunken World War II warships scattered along its coast..<br><br>Mr Sogavare, recently dubbed the "Master of Mayhem" by one expert, has pledged to continue courting both China and US allies if he wins on Wednesday, adopting a Look North policy and a "friends to all, enemies to none" stance.<br><br>His plans for dearly needed socio-economic growth involves tapping into foreign infrastructure initiatives including China's Belt and Road projects and Australian-sponsored programs.<br><br>Opposition parties meanwhile have promised to either tear up the Chinese security pact, hold a national vote on it or even abandon diplomatic ties with Beijing all together.<br><br>Former diplomat to the Solomon Islands Mihai Sora said the national vote on Wednesday would be one of the most consequential since independence 46 years ago.<br><br>"Solomon Islands has been the site of the most rapid strategic gains that China has made in the Pacific in recent years," Mr Sora, now a research fellow at the Lowy Institute, told AAP.<br><br>"That has a direct impact on regional security and therefore on Australia's national security."<br><br>Mr Sogavare has repeatedly said he would not allow any military base to be built in the Solomon Islands - a red Australian line for and US forces.<br><br>But the mainstay in Solomons politics for the past quarter century recently raised eyebrows for praising the "Chinese style" socialism of Beijing system.<br><br>He also attacked the "do whatever you want" feature of democracy that, he said, had led to same-sex marriage and asked what values were comfortable for the deeply Christian nation.<br><br>Clive Moore, Emeritus Professor at the University of Queensland, has closely watched Mr Sogavare since he was first elected prime minister in 2000 during years-long domestic [https://search.usa.gov/search?affiliate=usagov&query=conflict conflict] known as the Tensions.<br><br>"He's a very skillful politician whether you like him or not," Prof Moore, a recipient of the Solomons equivalent of a knighthood, told AAP.<br><br>"He has has learned how to manipulate the sections of government that he needs and he's made the position of prime minister increasingly authoritarian."<br><br>But voters would only accept that if livelihoods were improving, Prof Moore said.<br><br>The economy remains narrow and capacity gaps in health, education and infrastructure leave the average Solomons Islander earning about $A3300 a year.<br><br>The 2023 Pacific Games, centred around the $100 million national stadium gifted by China, are credited by the prime minister for driving the economy out of three years of negative growth.<br><br>Further energy and transport projects are expected to drive growth to three per cent next year, according to the World Bank.<br><br>But the annual cost of maintaining the stadium outstrips annual spending on medicines, Opposition leader Matthew Wale has said as he runs on improving healthcare.<br><br>"After the election, if the people think they've been cheated, (capital) Honiara does burst into flames every now and then," Prof Moore said.<br><br>About 430 Australian police and military personnel will be on hand to assist local police with the elections, alongside New Zealand and Pacific forces.<br><br>Foreign Minister Penny Wong and other Australian officials have emphasised Australia saw the Solomons as "family" and the nation's "natural partner".<br><br>More than 6000 Solomon Islanders work in Australia, with remittances contributing about three per cent to the Solomons' economy.<br><br>The Solomons also [https://ajt-ventures.com/?s=receives receives] more Australian foreign aid than any other nation, bar Papua New Guinea and Indonesia.<br><br>About $170 million a year goes to projects ranging from renovating provincial marketplaces to extensive policing support.<br><br>The past three polls have sparked rioting, leading officials to impose a 10-day alcohol ban nationwide starting on Tuesday.<br><br>Closer scrutiny will also be over "Devil's Night" - the evening before polls open when political operatives resort to last-ditch tactics, transport arrangements and vote-buying to turn out electors for their side.<br><br>For the first time, provincial elections will be held alongside the national poll, likely delaying counting.<br><br>The various dynamics - including the large contingent of independents expected to be re-elected - make predicting a result difficult for experts, even if Mr Sogavare is in the box seat.<br><br>"Votes are impacted by so many matters including self-interest, sometimes bribes or thinking the local MP will do good things for voters personally," Dr Anouk Ride, research fellow at Australian National University's Pacific Affairs department, told AAP.<br><br>"(Other factors included) loyalty to MPs through tribal or church connections, and ideological positions, like whether the MP will support democracy, or their position on the economy."<br><br>Once results are declared, MPs will converge on Honiara hotels to negotiate the next coalition government and appoint the prime minister.<br><br>Mr Sogavare will attempt an unprecedented re-election as prime minister.<br><br>"We're looking at several weeks of uncertainty around who will form government unless one side wins a large majority," Dr Ride said.<br><br>It remains to be seen whether Solomon Islanders stand alongside Mr Sogavare and adopt his vision to "look north".<br><br>This article was made possible through the Melbourne Press Club's Michael Gordon Journalism Fellowship Program.
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